I've recently changed my mind about this - it may be even cheaper to first build insulation and then pour water into it and freeze that water. This avoids the need for trips to the Antarctic, underwater construction and nuclear power.
Thank you for putting this together. Seems like a great idea.
> Once in place it can probably be anchored to the ocean floor via lots of quite beastly cables. Whilst expensive in an absolute sense, I don’t think these will be that expensive per km² of land, as long as it is not anchored in a place with particularly deep water and strong currents.
Could it be kept in place with the sails? Or perhaps moving slowly to keep perfect temperature year-round?
I don't think you want to move it around once it's in place. I think you want it keep it in one place for the political reason of wanting to claim ownership over that part of the ocean.
Why would you want agriculture? Agri-products are very cheap. There's no reason to produce them yourself when you can just buy them.
> no natural resources
Why would you want resources? Ores and the like are also very cheap. Why are you taking such an interest in these low-margin, low-value industries? You want tech companies and chip fabs and robotics plants, not farms and mines.
This is a really great idea from a liberty-minded perspective. Seasteaders waste tons of time on futile endeavors when this could probably work if libertarians could actually organize themselves.
Ignoring some of the more globalist and "one world" kinds of assumptions that tend to come with ideas like this, it's a far better avenue for something like private cities and, in the future, gene modified ethnostates for new peoples. Conquering and displacement is just too costly for most the current environment.
The main hurdle I see is that the US have spent the past 150y taking control of all islands which could remotely support a land invasion from both the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. And in case of failure (Cuba), we nearly all died in a nuclear holocaust.
Surely the US would not see with a kind eye a giant, virtually indestructible, mobile island....
Maybe, but realistically the only nation who could even think about a land invasion of the USA is China, and China can make these ice-islands if they want to with or without US permission.
What would a small "demo version" of this look like? Like the Falcon 1, a demonstration to prove that the technology can work. How small could it be? How much would it cost?
Unfortunately it's a "Will to Power" kind of thing.
As long as the people who could be described as the overseers of Elon Musk (Rotheschildes, etc.) continue to prioritize de-growth and anti-human capital policies, the "ESG Economy", there will be too many legal and hard-power restrictions on this kind of endeavor.
Just considering how Antarctica itself is under direct government ownership shows this would need the blessing of existing bureaucracies. In the current dynamic, at best we will see it done as either an Elysium strategy (in otherwords, only the power elite are welcome) or an expansion of their "maximum human biomass" plans.
True, but it cannot be denied that us plebs are really bad at even trying. We have no irl community, no capital willing to be put up, no unified ideal. If we had those things, we could develop an advantage of fanaticism. But, all we have are disperate internet loners.
That obviously required some creative accounting, because this number is the size of Russia's pre-war GDP, and Russia actually grew its GDP. That $2tr must have come from elsewhere, perhaps "the markets" paid for it.
Any serious conversation on the economic impact will have to aknowledge that Europe paid orders of magnitude more, than Russia did, and they don't even have the territory to show for it.
Some places where people are discussing this: Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/comments/1e2nf44/ice_the_penultimate_frontier/
https://www.reddit.com/r/seasteading/comments/1e3vboa/ice_the_penultimate_frontier/
Less Wrong:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gthjxPDywrMTs3p2j/ice-the-penultimate-frontier
I've recently changed my mind about this - it may be even cheaper to first build insulation and then pour water into it and freeze that water. This avoids the need for trips to the Antarctic, underwater construction and nuclear power.
Amazing idea! Wild to think there could be new iceberg city-states in the future.
Also seems like something tech billionaires would be interested in.
Have you tried pitching this? I bet some wealthy investors would fund research into scaled down replicas of this.
I will try to pitch this in October
Thank you for putting this together. Seems like a great idea.
> Once in place it can probably be anchored to the ocean floor via lots of quite beastly cables. Whilst expensive in an absolute sense, I don’t think these will be that expensive per km² of land, as long as it is not anchored in a place with particularly deep water and strong currents.
Could it be kept in place with the sails? Or perhaps moving slowly to keep perfect temperature year-round?
Thanks!
I don't think you want to move it around once it's in place. I think you want it keep it in one place for the political reason of wanting to claim ownership over that part of the ocean.
Is this really worth it? This land will have no natural resources, you cannot have agriculture. You can just colonize the Australian outback instead.
Also, recovering land from sea in existing coastal countries is cheaper and more valuable - already near high value real estate.
> you cannot have agriculture
Why would you want agriculture? Agri-products are very cheap. There's no reason to produce them yourself when you can just buy them.
> no natural resources
Why would you want resources? Ores and the like are also very cheap. Why are you taking such an interest in these low-margin, low-value industries? You want tech companies and chip fabs and robotics plants, not farms and mines.
So what is the advantage of this new land? Mainly to be outside exising jurisdictions?
It can be many things, but "resources" really aren't that valuable.
New land can be good to have new sovereign nations with different systems of government.
It does seem weird that half of Earth is empty and unused.
If you bought them, then you wouldn't be all that self-sufficient, which is important imo.
why is it important? Do you want to be self-sufficient for every possible resource?
This is a really great idea from a liberty-minded perspective. Seasteaders waste tons of time on futile endeavors when this could probably work if libertarians could actually organize themselves.
Ignoring some of the more globalist and "one world" kinds of assumptions that tend to come with ideas like this, it's a far better avenue for something like private cities and, in the future, gene modified ethnostates for new peoples. Conquering and displacement is just too costly for most the current environment.
Amazing idea, and I hope it happens one day.
The main hurdle I see is that the US have spent the past 150y taking control of all islands which could remotely support a land invasion from both the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. And in case of failure (Cuba), we nearly all died in a nuclear holocaust.
Surely the US would not see with a kind eye a giant, virtually indestructible, mobile island....
Maybe, but realistically the only nation who could even think about a land invasion of the USA is China, and China can make these ice-islands if they want to with or without US permission.
I respond to some of your critisms of current seastead designs here:
https://archerships.substack.com/p/are-seasteads-technically-impossible
What would a small "demo version" of this look like? Like the Falcon 1, a demonstration to prove that the technology can work. How small could it be? How much would it cost?
You could do a demo in a disused swimming pool. Cost probably on a par with an applied science PhD, i.e. $1M or so.
It's a great idea.
Unfortunately it's a "Will to Power" kind of thing.
As long as the people who could be described as the overseers of Elon Musk (Rotheschildes, etc.) continue to prioritize de-growth and anti-human capital policies, the "ESG Economy", there will be too many legal and hard-power restrictions on this kind of endeavor.
Just considering how Antarctica itself is under direct government ownership shows this would need the blessing of existing bureaucracies. In the current dynamic, at best we will see it done as either an Elysium strategy (in otherwords, only the power elite are welcome) or an expansion of their "maximum human biomass" plans.
Well, it may be worth trying it
Yeah, I shouldn't be such a damn pessimistic contrarian. It's a great idea, and you've given a sterling defense and explanation of it.
I support it. If we get a Neo-Hitler, this better be #4 on his platform.
Doesn't have to be anything related to the ethnonationalist right. Could be libertarian or something!
Ha ha, absolutely. Whoever leads us to the Golden Age.
True, but it cannot be denied that us plebs are really bad at even trying. We have no irl community, no capital willing to be put up, no unified ideal. If we had those things, we could develop an advantage of fanaticism. But, all we have are disperate internet loners.
Still, if some Heinlein-type or South African Broderbond can pull it off, then it's a wonderful idea.
"Russia’s conquest of parts of Eastern Ukraine has cost them something like $1.5tr-$2tr for about 100,000 km²"
That's intersting. How did you calculate this?
public data on the land area and estimated direct and indirect costs of the war
That obviously required some creative accounting, because this number is the size of Russia's pre-war GDP, and Russia actually grew its GDP. That $2tr must have come from elsewhere, perhaps "the markets" paid for it.
GDP is a per-year number, not an overall cost. Russian GDP shrunk in 2023 AFAIK and it is spending 6% of GDP on the military.
There is actually quite a lot of debate about the cost to Russia, the $2tr figure is probably wrong though, it's more like there isn't a real figure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Russia
Any serious conversation on the economic impact will have to aknowledge that Europe paid orders of magnitude more, than Russia did, and they don't even have the territory to show for it.
not sure abt ooms more but this is offtopic
FYI, I've written up a tutorial for building with EPIC mix a low cost, durable, fire-resistant, mold resistant, floating material:
https://archerships.substack.com/p/1075149html
It might be useful as an insulating layer for an icestead.
yeah maybe.
I think just pure air may be better, since it is cheaper.
Layer of concrete, air gap, layer of concrete.